Campus Chaos: Best College Football Week 4 Underdogs Picks & Predictions with On Tilt

What exactly does Campus Chaos mean? We’re looking for teams that could cause a little bit of chaos on a campus this weekend – usually underdogs with a chance to do more than just cover the spread.

We’ve had some success since the beginning of the season, including Kelly cashing with West Virginia outright last week. Now we’re looking to do it again with a Week 4 slate that gives us several more opportunities.

Let’s get into this week’s Campus Chaos picks.

Ariel: Tennessee +4.5 vs. Texas

Tennessee’s defense has only allowed three touchdowns all year, and their point differential is better than Texas. I understand Tennessee hasn’t faced anybody like Texas. The two games they didn’t cover were as 30 or 40-point favorites against nobodies. Fine.

But I really like this matchup because I will always take a good defense, and I think Tennessee can make this a low enough-scoring game at home.

Tennessee’s QB Faizon Brandon has 552 passing yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. The run game averages about 300 yards per game, No. 4 in the FBS. So you can run the football and you’ve got a decent defense. That’s good enough to keep things within 4.5.

I do worry a little bit about the pressure in front of your home crowd and facing a Texas team that everybody is raving about, but I feel like I have to take the points here with the home dog.

I also like the Under in this game because I think both teams are going to spend an awful lot of time running the football. Both teams can run it, and you’ve got a freshman quarterback in Tennessee who I doubt they’re going to want throwing the ball 40 times.

And, well, we already know Arch can’t be trusted.

Kelly: Tennessee +4.5 vs. Texas

I always try to do all of my own handicapping before I see who all the mushes are on because there’s a lot of them out there. There’s a lot of people on the fade list, and I wish I didn’t know that because I was starting to lean heavily toward Tennessee in this game.

Not only because we’re going to be there, but because I really do like what I saw from the Vols, especially in that second half against Georgia Tech.

They went down 10-7, and I gave out Georgia Tech +12.5 because this was basically the quarterback’s first road start in a hostile environment. There were a lot of things that could go wrong.

Georgia Tech blocks that punt and I’m thinking, “Oh boy, here we go.”

And guess what? He marched right down the field and scored a touchdown afterwards. That’s what good quarterbacks do. They don’t cave under pressure.

Now, that was Georgia Tech, not Texas.

But Texas is beatable.

Texas is also not the No. 1 team in the power ratings. They’re probably seventh or eighth depending on who you ask. It’s sure as hell not No. 1. That’s Ohio State.

I do have some concerns about this Vols team and the pressure that might come with this game. I wish it was a night game. It’s a noon kickoff with College GameDay there, and maybe that gets the best of them.

I’d like to think Josh Heupel has this team ready to play, though.

Both teams can run the ball, and I think the defenses are going to be the best units on the field. This game is going to be won in the trenches, and it’s going to be a whole lot of fun.

Joe: Oklahoma State +1.5 at West Virginia

I’ll tell you where there might be some chaos: Morgantown.

Oklahoma State is getting points against West Virginia, and the reality is that Michael Hawkins is a fantastic quarterback for the Mountaineers – really, really good.

But West Virginia doesn’t have the same proficient passing attack that Oklahoma State has in this game.

I love the Over, and I think that correlates to an Oklahoma State win here.

Why? Because Oklahoma State can keep scoring in a number of different ways against this West Virginia team.

West Virginia is also coming off that rivalry game against Virginia in Charlotte. Maybe there’s a little bit of a letdown spot here. I think Oklahoma State learned its lesson against Tulsa in Game 1.

To me, this is all about offense.

I’m expecting points, and I’ll take points with what I think is the better offense in this game.

Give me the Oklahoma State Cowboys to cause a little chaos in Morgantown.

I love this kid Hawkins. If you haven’t seen him play, he’s a true dual-threat quarterback – but West Virginia doesn’t have the horses offensively that I think Oklahoma State has.

I think Oklahoma State is going to rack up 40+ points. If you don’t want to trust them, take the Over because points are absolutely coming.

Kelly: Vanderbilt +9.5 vs. Auburn

I like big plus-money underdogs, and I’ve got a laundry list of Campus Chaos possibilities this week.

I think Vanderbilt has a shot.

We bet against Auburn last week with Florida, and that final score wasn’t exactly indicative of how that game went. Florida absolutely dominated them.

We also know Vanderbilt has won two straight against Auburn.

This may be three.

It’s on my long list.

Kelly: Minnesota +10.5 at Washington

I’ve also got Minnesota +10.5 at Washington.

This is a Washington team that’s 3-0 and still isn’t ranked. Wonder why?

Hint, hint: they’re not any good.

Washington hasn’t come within nine points of covering a spread this season. They were 23.5-point favorites against Washington State and won 24-10. They were laying 28.5 against winless Utah State and won 16-14. Then they played an FCS opponent in Eastern Washington and didn’t cover 42.5.

I love P.J. Fleck as an underdog. He’s 18-12-1 against the spread in that spot, and I like him plus the points here.

I really, really, really would love to see an outright winner.

I also believe Minnesota is a little bit better than the team we just saw get absolutely thumped by Mississippi State. Mainly, I know Mississippi State is better than I thought they were because I had South Carolina last week, and we saw what happened in the second half in Columbia.

If I can get my underdogs – or even some of my favorites – to play four quarters of football, I’ll be happy.

Kelly: App State +14.5 vs. NC State

App State is another team on my long list, and my biggest concern with NC State is whether they’ve lost that locker room after what happened last week.

NC State somehow pulled off one of the worst bad beats we’ve seen against Vanderbilt. They didn’t trail until there was one second left on the clock and still lost the game.

There were so many different things the quarterback could have done at the end of that game. Throw the ball away. Run parallel along the goal line. Run out the back of the end zone and let them tackle you.

Instead, Vanderbilt was handed the game on a platter.

Vandy didn’t lead at all in that game until the final second, so I think there’s a letdown spot across the board there.

And then there’s Iowa.

If I see one more post about Iowa and the points causing a little Campus Chaos, I’m going to lose it.