The Daily Juice: Best Bets, Picks & Predictions for Stanley Cup Final Game 4, Tuesday MLB

We got hooked yesterday.

The Brewers got there, but not in a way anyone expected. Milwaukee scored four runs in the top of the 10th inning and then immediately gave four right back in the bottom of the frame before eventually winning 15-14 in 12 innings.

The bigger takeaway might be the ballpark itself – the Athletics are playing this six-game homestand in Las Vegas, and if yesterday was any indication, totals are going to be a major story. That game closed with a total of 11 and blew past it. The game-tying home run in extra innings was essentially a pop fly that left the yard.

It’s hot. It’s dry. The wind is blowing out. Until further notice, we’re looking at overs in this park.

Elsewhere, the NBA Finals continue to deliver. The Spurs grabbed Game 3 to cut New York’s series lead to 2-1, and now Game 4 becomes a massive swing game. The road team has won all three games in the series so far.

Unfortunately, the Daily Juice card went 0-3 yesterday despite a decent overall betting day thanks to some live wagers and the NBA over cashing.

Let’s see if we can bounce back on Tuesday.

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Brewers-A’s Over 11.5 Runs (-115)

Let’s start in Las Vegas. I already told you we’re betting the over.

We’re sitting at 29 runs after the opening game of this series, and this ballpark is playing like a beer softball league right now. It’s a small park, it’s hot, and the wind is carrying everything.

I don’t care who’s pitching. I don’t care what adjustments the books make.

Until further notice, we’re betting overs here.

Brewers vs. Athletics Pick: Over 11.5 Runs (-115) (1.1 units)

Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Under 6 (-110)

The second play comes from Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final.

There is one very important caveat.

Who is playing net for Carolina?

If Frederik Andersen starts, this is a stay-away.

But if Brandon Bussi gets the nod, which appears likely after working in the starter’s crease at practice, I think Carolina changes its entire approach.

The Hurricanes cannot keep playing games where goals are flying in from every direction. If they’re going to get back into this series, they need to play a more conservative style and trust their goaltender.

Bussi won more than 30 games during the regular season and posted a 2.48 goals-against average. The only goal he allowed in relief during Game 3 came on a bizarre ricochet sequence that wasn’t really his fault.

Vegas is perfectly happy to play a low-scoring hockey game if Carolina wants to slow things down.

We’ve seen three straight overs in this series.

I think we finally get an under.

Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Pick: Under 6 (-110) (1.1 units)

Dodgers Moneyline (-103)

The final play heads to Major League Baseball.

We’re fading Paul Skenes.

This has nothing to do with Skenes as a pitcher. The problem has been everything around him.

The Pirates have lost four straight games started by Skenes. They’ve dropped games to Houston, Chicago, Toronto and Philadelphia despite having one of the best young pitchers in baseball on the mound.

Skenes enters with a 3.09 ERA, but his recent numbers have been trending in the wrong direction. He’s allowed five earned runs against Philadelphia, four against Toronto and three against Houston over his last handful of outings.

The Dodgers counter with Eric Lauer.

The numbers aren’t pretty, but Los Angeles has won each of his last two starts, including a 15-6 victory at Colorado and a 6-5 win at Arizona.

At essentially a pick’em price, I’d rather back the Dodgers lineup and continue fading the Pirates’ bullpen.

Dodgers vs. Pirates Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-103) (1.03 units)

Tuesday’s Betting Card

• Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Brewers vs. Athletics Over 11.5 (-115)
• Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Under 6 (-110)
• Dodgers Moneyline (-103)