Welcome back to the BettingPros PGA podcast.
We are two weeks away from America’s National Championship of Golf, the U.S. Open, but this week it’s Canada’s National Championship of Golf, the RBC Canadian Open.
We’ll get into our betting preview of the Canadian Open down below, followed by our best bets for the week.
RBC Canadian Open Preview
After the small-field signature event in Ohio last week, we get a full-field event with a 36-hole cut. For the second straight year, the Canadian Open will be played at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, the North Course. The tournament typically rotates between courses, but this is the second year of what will be at least a three-year hosting stint for TPC Toronto. It’s a par 70 that will play to 7,389 yards – a fairly long course.
Players will have to reckon with six par 4s that measure 481 yards or longer, and four of those long par 4s are 500 yards or longer. There’s also a 225-yard par 3 and a 237-yard par 3. There are some shorter holes as well: a 158-yard par 3 and a 144-yard par 3. There’s also a 350-yard par 4 and a 375-yard par 4.
The only two par 5s at TPC Toronto bookend the course: the 542-yard opening hole and the 581-yard finishing hole that has a pond fronting the green. It plays a little bit like the 18th at Torrey Pines South. Not a lot of water, and there isn’t a lot of sand either. The greens are a little bigger than average and they’re a blend of poa and bentgrass.
The defending champion is Ryan Fox. He finished 18-under par at TPC Toronto last year and beat Sam Burns in a sudden-death playoff that went four holes – kind of a marathon as sudden deaths go.
The forecast this week calls for wet, breezy conditions. There are showers in the forecast for Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. The wind is expected to blow around 10-15 miles an hour for most of the tournament.
I have to admit, I’m still not sure which skills we should be emphasizing when handicapping the field this week, even after watching the tournament at TPC Toronto last year. What do you make of this course?
Bo McBrayer on TPC Toronto
It’s going to be pretty fair. I like the disparity between the challenging par 4s and the bookending par 5s, but the getable par 4s are mixed in there. It’s just a really nice, balanced golf course. With rain in the forecast and not a lot of wind, I think we’re going lower scoring this time. There’s some more birdie-or-better percentage involved here. There’s also less scrambling, even though I do think the greenside bunkers are well and strategically placed, so you do want to have some sand saves mixed in there.
Based on last year with Burns and Fox being in the playoff, you would assume that driving distance does hold some sort of advantage. Both of those guys were lashing it out there 340. That’s going to be in the equation, but it’s still essentially a second-shot golf course as most of them are. So a lot of approach weight there – strokes gained on approach, and then proximity at 150-200 yards for most of them, but you do also want to include the 200+ bucket as well. Putting on the mix of bent and poa is also important here.
I think it’s a pretty balanced approach. I didn’t really focus in too heavily on any category specifically. I just kind of moved my weights around on some basic categories within that last 24-rounds window that I usually do.
So there’s really nothing specific about this course that you’re honing in on. You just want to make sure you get the hottest golfers who typically hit it a little longer and are good on approach. That kind of breaks it down pretty well. In a field like this, where there’s a couple big names and the rest are your full-field event guys, I think we might get some surprises.
Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week
Now it’s time for the Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week, presented by Hard Rock Bet.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Best Bet
My Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week is Wyndham Clark at 26-1. I’m riding the hot hand.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s RBC Canadian Open Picks
- Hard Rock Best Bet: Wyndham Clark (+2600)
- Kristoffer Reitan (+3200)
- Eric Cole (+4700)
- Mac Meissner (+6500)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+9800)
- Andrew Putnam (+10500)
Bo McBrayer’s Best Bet
My Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week is Michael Brennan at 53-1.
I think Brennan’s got so much firepower – I can’t wait to see him put it all together. It might not be this week, but I just have that gut instinct that the talent usually wins out. It’s a long golf course with moisture on the ground. These guys are all going to be taking dead aim. Let’s see what the kid’s got.
Bo McBrayer’s RBC Canadian Open Picks
- Hard Rock Best Bet: Michael Brennan (+5300)
- Sam Burns (+1325)
- Wyndham Clark (+2400)
- Mac Meissner (+6500)
- Rico Hoey (+6900)
- Jackson Suber (+18500) & Top 20
And that is all for this week’s BettingPros PGA podcast. Please join us again next week for our mega betting preview of the U.S. Open.
Until then, so long everyone.
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