We’re coming off a losing day that honestly felt like a winning day. Why? Because sometimes it’s fun to go against the entire market and be proven right.
Everyone was running to bet Carolina. The trends were everywhere. Carolina was 8-0 in this spot, 10-0 in that spot. Over and over again, people piled onto the Hurricanes. Meanwhile, Vegas won Game 1, 5-4. The Golden Knights are now 4-0 in Game 1s this postseason.
Getting that right felt good. The other bets? Whatever.
Tampa Bay got smacked 8-0 and that trend completely blew up in our face. Overall, it was a 1-2 day and a small paper cut to the bankroll.
We lost Monday. We lost Tuesday. June has started exactly how I thought it might. Not well.
But today brings NBA Finals Game 1, and I’ve got two bets for that game plus a pair of baseball wagers.
Knicks vs. Spurs: Spurs 1H -2.5 (-110)
Let’s start with Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
There are a lot of trends pointing toward San Antonio, but I’m focusing on the first half. The number is Spurs -2.5.
San Antonio is going to be electric tonight.
The Spurs are coming off a ridiculous seven-game war with Oklahoma City. If the wear and tear from that series is going to show up, it won’t be in Game 1. The adrenaline is going to be pumping.
The bigger concern is New York.
The Knicks have been sitting around waiting. Waiting and waiting. Now they have to walk into San Antonio and deal with a Victor Wembanyama-led team that is much different than the one they faced earlier this season.
These teams played twice. In the first meeting on New Year’s Eve, Julian Champagnie went crazy and hit 11 three-pointers. San Antonio trailed most of the game before exploding for 41 points in the fourth quarter to win 134-132.
The Knicks want to play fast, but I actually think that works against them early. They need to get their sea legs back. They haven’t been playing basketball at the intensity level the Spurs have.
They need to adjust to Wembanyama. They need to adjust to the speed. They need to adjust to the NBA Finals environment.
Meanwhile, San Antonio is stepping right off one boat and onto another.
I think the first half belongs to the Spurs.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks: Under 9 Runs (-105)
Next up, it’s Shohei Ohtani Day. That’s always fun.
But Ohtani faces a Diamondbacks team with Zac Gallen on the mound, and Gallen has pitched very well at home. He’s 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA, a .244 opposing batting average, and just 11 earned runs allowed in 32 innings at home.
The bigger story, though, is Ohtani. When Ohtani pitches, nobody scores. His ERA is an absolute ridiculous 0.82. In May, he had a 1.08 ERA.
The final scores in Ohtani starts have been 4-1, 4-0, 4-0, and 2-1. Back in April the final scores were 2-1, 3-0, 8-2, and 4-3. Only one game has gone over the total in the last two months when Ohtani has started.
The number is nine because the Dodgers offense could absolutely explode against Gallen and Arizona.
The Dodgers won last night 6-5 after losing the opener of the series. I could easily see Los Angeles winning again, but laying nearly 2-1 on the moneyline doesn’t interest me.
The run line is around -114, but if this game finishes 3-2 or 4-3, that becomes a painful loss. The under feels like the better play.
As long as Gallen pitches well and Arizona’s bullpen doesn’t get destroyed, the Diamondbacks simply aren’t scoring much against Ohtani. Nobody has scored on him all season.
- Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Pick: Under 9 Runs (-105) (1.05 units)
Pirates vs. Astros: Astros Moneyline (+135)
The third play of the day comes from Houston.
Spencer Arrighetti has been unbelievable at home. He owns a 0.89 ERA at Daikin Park, a 3-0 record, and has allowed just two earned runs in 20.1 innings. Opponents are batting only .103 against him.
His home starts have produced a 2-0 win over Texas, 7-4 win over the Yankees, and a 3-1 win over Colorado.
Overall, Arrighetti is 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA. If this keeps up, the 26-year-old is going to find himself in the American League Cy Young conversation.
He’s matched up against Paul Skenes.
Here’s the problem. Pittsburgh has won four straight games overall, but the Pirates have actually lost three consecutive games started by Skenes. Those losses came by scores of 7-2 to the Cubs, 5-2 to Toronto, and 6-0 to Philadelphia.
Skenes has allowed 10 earned runs over his last 15.1 innings. That’s very un-Paul Skenes-like.
The Pirates are playing well, but the Astros have won every Arrighetti start since April 1 except one.
At plus money, I think it’s worth the flyer.
Maybe Skenes leaves the game tied 1-1 or 2-2, then Houston’s offense takes over against the bullpen.
- Pirates vs. Astros Pick: Astros Moneyline (+135) (1 unit)
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Spurs -4.5 vs. Knicks (-110)
My Hard Rock Bet of the Day comes from Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
The trend data is pretty impressive. Over the last 22 seasons, home favorites in Game 1 of the NBA Finals with less rest than their opponent are 10-2 against the spread, covering at an 83% clip.
Home teams in Game 1 of the NBA Finals are 18-5 ATS during that same span. Home favorites of 10 points or fewer are 18-3 ATS.
That’s a big reason I’m not hedging my Spurs futures ticket yet.
If San Antonio wins Game 1, the hedge price on New York improves dramatically. At that point, we can come back and create a guaranteed profit.
For now, I’m staying with the Spurs. I think they win Game 1. I think they cover Game 1.
I also lean toward the over, but I’d rather live bet that after what could be a sluggish opening quarter. Young Spurs players making their Finals debut combined with a Knicks team that hasn’t played in a while could create a slow start before the pace picks up.
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Spurs -4.5 (-110) vs. Knicks (1.1 units)
Wednesday’s Betting Card
- Spurs First Half Spread -2.5 (-110)
- Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Under 9 Runs (-105)
- Astros Moneyline (+135)
- Spurs -4.5 (-110)
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