NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks + Predictions for May 22

Happy Friday! A few of today’s MLB pitching matchups and weather conditions are setting up nicely for some first-inning no-run bets on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s break down the best NRFI picks for May 22.

NRFI Best Bets Today for Friday, May 22

Here are my top NRFI picks today:

• Cubs vs. Astros NRFI (Wrigley Field – 2:05 p.m. ET)

• Phillies vs. Guardians NRFI (Citizens Bank Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)

• Yankees vs. Rays NRFI (Yankee Stadium – 7:05 p.m. ET)

NRFI Pick: Cubs vs. Astros

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-150)

We’ll start at Wrigley Field, where Spencer Arrighetti takes the mound against Jameson Taillon for a 2:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Arrighetti has surprisingly been one of the best starters in baseball this season, posting a 1.50 ERA, and Taillon has predictably been… well…Jameson Taillon!

The weather is the headliner here. Winds are blowing in at around 15 mph with temperatures in the mid-50s at first pitch. Meteorologist Kevin Roth noted on his Prop Finder weather analysis that it’s “about as poor of hitting and home run conditions as you can get this time of year” — a strong endorsement from one of the industry’s most respected sports betting weather analysts.

Taillon has also been significantly better at home than on the road in 2026, posting a 3.63 ERA at Wrigley compared to a mark north of 6.00 away from it.

NRFI lines are often heavily juiced, but the combination of elite pitching, brutal weather, and a park where wind conditions can completely shut down offenses makes the -150 price a fair one. This pick could be a strong leg in a first-inning parlay on HRB.

NRFI Pick: Phillies vs. Guardians

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-145)

Next, we head to Citizens Bank Park for a 6:40 p.m. ET matchup between Cristopher Sanchez and Gavin Williams, two of the better starters in baseball right now. The -145 price is fair between two pitchers who have been this dominant.

Sanchez has been arguably the best pitcher in the National League in 2026, and his home numbers are video-game stuff — a 1.00 ERA at Citizens Bank Park with 57 strikeouts in 45 home innings.

Opponents are hitting just above the Mendoza Line against him at home. In his 10 starts this season, he’s allowed only three earned runs across his first innings of work.

On the other side, Gavin Williams has been a breakout story for Cleveland with some genuinely nasty swing-and-miss stuff. He’s allowed five earned runs across 10 first innings this year, but four of them came in just two outings.

The weather in Philadelphia tonight could be damp and dreary, with temperatures hovering around 60 degrees and some wind. Both pitchers generate plenty of whiffs and chases, which makes them less reliant on batted ball luck. We’ll take the pitching and the weather at -145.

NRFI Pick: Yankees vs. Rays

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-115)

We’ll close at Yankee Stadium for a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch, where Gerrit Cole makes his highly anticipated 2026 debut against the Tampa Bay Rays. Nick Martinez starts for Tampa Bay and has been a pleasant surprise this season. He hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in any of his nine first innings this year. Martienz also suppresses hard contact, ranking in the 89th percentile via Baseball Savant.

The Yankees own one of the best first-inning run-scoring rates in baseball, which is part of why we’re getting a very reasonable -115 on this one. Cole is making his season debut and may need some time to find his footing, which introduces a little uncertainty.

Tampa Bay posts one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, which is probably also baked into this nice price. The weather in the Bronx tonight is largely neutral, maybe slightly favorable for pitchers.

Cole flashed solid strikeout stuff in his last two minor league rehab starts. Of course, it’s been roughly 1.5 years since the Yankees’ ace pitched at a high level. But it makes me feel better that his 2024 first-inning track record was very good for NRFI picks, as Cole allowed just two first-inning runs across 17 starts.

We’ll bank on Martinez’s excellent 2026 first-inning track record, Cole’s historical pedigree as one of the best starters in the game when healthy, and that extremely fair -115 price as our third and final NRFI pick for Friday.

Good luck, and have a great weekend!

More ways to play

If you’re riding with a NRFI and every pitch matters early, Florida players can keep the excitement going with Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, available exclusively on Hard Rock Bet. It’s a fast, fun way to stay in the action while you wait for the first inning to wrap up.