The full 17-game, 18-week 2026-27 NFL schedule will be released Thursday night at 8 p.m. ET. A few matchups have already leaked, and more will likely continue to trickle out as the official release approaches.
With that in mind, now feels like the perfect time to take a look at how NFL betting trends are shaping up as the offseason continues.
NFL Win Totals: Early Betting Trends
Free agency and the NFL Draft have already come and gone, meaning there’s now a clearer picture of which teams could contend for Super Bowl LXI in February and which teams may already be looking ahead to the 2027-28 season.
As of May 13, here’s how win totals are trending at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook:
Most-Bet NFL Team Win Totals
- Miami Dolphins (4.5 wins)
- New York Giants (7.5 wins)
- Las Vegas Raiders (5.5 wins)
It’s important to note that Hard Rock Bet has a strong presence in Florida as the state’s only legal online sportsbook. The Dolphins finished 7-10 last season and are in the middle of a significant rebuild featuring a new head coach and quarterback for the 2026 campaign, but they’re still drawing plenty of action as one of Florida’s home teams.
Interestingly, the Dolphins and Giants are once again the two teams seeing the most win total action after ranking No. 1 and No. 2 in our data prior to last year’s schedule release. Hard Rock Bet is also legal in New Jersey, where there is naturally strong Giants support.
The Raiders are a bit of an outlier here, but they’re entering a new era with 2026 first overall pick Fernando Mendoza taking over at quarterback and Klint Kubiak stepping in as head coach fresh off a Super Bowl win as part of the Seattle Seahawks’ coaching staff last season. Las Vegas’ win total currently sits at just 5.5 wins after a three-win season, but 92.2% of wagers are backing the Raiders to go over that number.
Most-Bet Team to Go Over Its Win Total: Miami Dolphins
Surprise, surprise — the Dolphins are the most-bet team to exceed their win total in 2026. With such a large presence in Florida, there appears to be plenty of optimism surrounding the new-look Dolphins and the fresh start that comes with a new season.
Miami is taking a chance on former Titans and Packers quarterback Malik Willis, whom the Dolphins signed to a three-year, $67.5 million contract this offseason. The 2022 third-round pick has made only six career regular-season starts through his first four years, but he showed encouraging signs, particularly during his limited opportunities over the past two seasons backing up Jordan Love in Green Bay.
Willis went 2-1 with 972 passing yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions across three starts and 11 appearances with the Packers since 2024. He also completed 78.7% of his passes and posted a 134.6 passer rating while adding 261 rushing yards and three touchdowns over his two years in Green Bay, evidently enough for the Dolphins to believe he’s worth the gamble.
Most-Bet Team to Go Under Its Win Total: Miami Dolphins
Ironically, the Dolphins are also the most-bet team to go under their projected win total this season. The Under accounts for 24.1% of Miami’s win total bets, showing that not everyone is sold on the team in year one of this new era. Still, the majority believes the Dolphins will finish better than a four-win team.
NFL Win Totals Drawing the Most Skepticism
There are actually four teams where Under bets currently outnumber Over bets for the 2026-27 NFL season:
- Indianapolis Colts – 65.8% Under, the most lopsided under-heavy team in the league
- Kansas City Chiefs – 62% Under, as the public seems skeptical of another big season from KC
- Baltimore Ravens – 59.8% Under despite their recent success
- New England Patriots – 52.6% Under, the closest split among the four
The Colts (7.5 wins), Chiefs (10.5 wins), Ravens (11.5 wins), and Patriots (9.5 wins) all have the talent to compete for a championship this upcoming season, but the public still appears to have concerns about each team entering the year.
Which Teams Are Drawing the Most Money?
Tracking where the largest amounts of money are being placed often tells a bigger story than simply looking at the number of bets on teams like the Dolphins. Even so, Miami leads the way in highest handle, followed by the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Meanwhile, a trio of teams with playoff, or even Super Bowl, expectations entering the season, the Ravens, 49ers, and Colts, are seeing the least amount of money wagered so far.
Super Bowl LXI Betting Outlook
The Seattle Seahawks defeated the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX just a few short months ago, but Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook has already posted live Super Bowl odds for the 2026-27 season for players looking to get an early start.
Here’s how the market is shaping up so far this offseason:
Most-Bet Teams to Win Super Bowl LXI
- Los Angeles Rams
- Buffalo Bills
- Kansas City Chiefs
The Seahawks may be the defending champions, but their NFC West rivals, the Los Angeles Rams, are the favorites to win Super Bowl LXI at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. They’re also the most-bet team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at their home stadium in February.
The Buffalo Bills are right behind them after another disappointing playoff exit in a season many believed represented Josh Allen’s clearest path yet to a championship given the state of the AFC at the time.
The Kansas City Chiefs round out the top three following a six-win season in which Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending knee injury late in the year.
Betting on NFL Conference Winners
Betting on the Super Bowl winner is always a popular futures market, but betting on which teams will get there is gaining traction as well. Instead of simply predicting which team will celebrate with confetti in February, players can try to pick the two teams that will represent the AFC and NFC in the Big Game.
Most-Bet AFC Winner
- Buffalo Bills
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Denver Broncos
The Bills and Chiefs ranked No. 2 and No. 3 among the most-bet teams to win Super Bowl LXI, so it’s no surprise they’re also leading the AFC winner market.
The Denver Broncos round out the top three after an AFC Championship Game appearance against the Patriots last season in a game where starting quarterback Bo Nix did not play because of an ankle injury suffered during the team’s Divisional Round win over the Bills.
Most-Bet NFC Winner
- Chicago Bears
- Los Angeles Rams
- New York Giants
The Rams are the favorites to win both the NFC and Super Bowl LXI, but the Chicago Bears are currently the most-bet team to win the conference.
Chicago captured the NFC North with an 11-6 record as the NFC’s No. 2 seed last season before losing an overtime thriller to the Rams in the Divisional Round. There appears to be plenty of optimism heading into year two of the Caleb Williams-Ben Johnson era.
The Rams are the second most-bet team to win the NFC, but perhaps more surprisingly, the Giants are gameted in as the third most-bet team to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. New York is tied for the third-longest odds at +3000 to win the NFC this season, but with John Harbaugh now serving as head coach and a young, talented roster in place, the Giants could be in for an exciting year.
NFL Awards Betting: Early Market Trends
Super Bowl futures aren’t the only NFL betting markets drawing attention this offseason. Betting on awards such as MVP, Coach of the Year, and Rookie of the Year continues to be extremely popular as well.
Most-Bet Players to Win 2026 NFL MVP
- Caleb Williams
- Josh Allen
- Joe Burrow
Despite being tied with Packers quarterback Jordan Love for the seventh-best odds to win the 2026 NFL MVP Award, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is currently the most-bet player to win the award this offseason.
The 2024 first overall pick had an up-and-down rookie campaign but showed flashes of elite potential in 2025 during offensive guru Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach, a year that ended with an NFC North title.
It’s also worth noting that Hard Rock Bet is active in Illinois sports betting, where Williams plays his home games at Soldier Field in Chicago.
Two other perennial MVP contenders, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, round out the top three. Allen won the 2024 MVP Award and was a finalist last season, while Burrow is still searching for the first MVP of his career in what he hopes will be a bounce-back season for both himself and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Long-Shot NFL MVP Bets Drawing Attention
The NFL MVP Award has effectively become a quarterback award in recent years, but that doesn’t make it impossible for players at other positions to win it. Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook offers a wide range of options across multiple positions in the MVP market, and these underdogs are already seeing early action:
- Tyler Shough
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Christian McCaffrey
Rueben Bain Jr. Emerging as Defensive Rookie of the Year Favorite
Rueben Bain Jr. is dominating Defensive Rookie of the Year betting. Not only is he seeing the most action among defensive rookies by a wide margin, but he’s also generating the highest handle of any rookie, offensive or defensive.
Bain Jr. may be such a popular pick because he played his college football at the University of Miami, where he earned All-American honors and was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year in 2025 as a junior.
The young edge rusher will continue his football career in Florida after being selected 15th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2026 NFL Draft.
John Harbaugh Drawing Early Coach of the Year Action
There’s real hype surrounding the Giants heading into the new season. Not only did Jaxson Dart show tremendous upside during his rookie year, but the addition of a head coach like John Harbaugh further highlights the expectations surrounding New York moving forward.
As the favorite at +650 odds, Harbaugh is also the most-bet head coach to win Coach of the Year. The longtime Ravens coach is now tasked with leading a young Giants team, and the public appears to expect big things this season.
Harbaugh has already generated more than double the number of bets compared to Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel, who has the second-most bets to win the award.
NFL Betting Markets Available Now at Hard Rock Bet
There’s nothing quite like football season. But just because it’s the offseason doesn’t mean NFL betting stops.
Head over to Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook to explore the available NFL markets and stay tuned for additional betting options ahead of the season opener on Sept. 9 in Seattle.
Referenced odds are subject to change.
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